It's the Oil, Stupid

Ok, pessimists, gather round. I've a story to tell that you won't ordinarily hear--about Iraq, the Middle East and oil. Maybe it's just a fairy tale, but maybe not. If not, this Iraqi affair isn't just about Saddam. We might be in the opening phase of a permanent oil war, pitting buyers, such as the United States, against the major sellers (and their allies) in the Middle East.

What raises this apocalyptic thought is the question of oil supplies. How much of the black stuff is actually left in the world? If there's plenty, then Saddam is a local and temporary scare. But the picture changes if the era of cheap and abundant oil is drawing to a close. With less oil on tap, oil-importing countries like ours would take a far more aggressive interest in the gulf states that run the world's last big reserves. Investors would also perk up if they saw a vital commodity sure to rise in price.

Here's what we know today:

New oil isn't being discovered at the rate we're using it up. For every two barrels pumped out of the ground, the industry finds less than ... // 78% Remaining