Thinking ahead: the value of future consciousness; Psychologists are recognizing the key role that the future plays in our thinking, our actions, and our successes and failures in life

Future consciousness is the total set of psychological abilities, processes, and experiences that humans use to understand and deal with the future. We first become aware of the future along with the past and present through our perception of time--of change, duration, and stability; of becoming and passing away; of patterns, rhythms, and forms of change.

We expand and enrich our consciousness of the future by building up the mental framework of images, concepts, and principles through which we understand and experience time. We do this not only through memories of our own personal experiences but through learning history, observing and studying contemporary trends, and imagining possible futures. Without anticipation, hope, goal setting, and planning--all features of future consciousness--we would be aimless, lost, mentally deficient, passive, and reactive. On the other hand, we can develop all these capacities and in so doing improve the total make-up of our mind and character. A growing understanding of the future fosters intellectual synthesis and higher-level thinking and contributes to the development of ethics, character virtues, and--most broadly of all--the multifaceted capacity of wisdom.

Developing Our Foresight

All adult humans possess some capacity of foresight--the ability to imagine the future. We could not intentionally develop and act on conscious future goals unless we possessed a minimal ability to imagine the future and see in our "mind's eye" our goals and aspirations. But people differ greatly in their ability to think ahead. Some people have trouble thinking of what might happen tomorrow while others can imagine all kinds of richly defined alternative futures, sometimes extending centuries or even millennia into the future.

Few of us develop our foresight capacity as much as we can and should. We may envision only very short-term goals, or we may routinely direct our lives toward longstanding goals that are rarely questioned or altered. We may put little effort into attempting to imagine goals that are different from those we have pursued in the past. We may just never think much about changing our goals. Yet, if we simply target the same goals over and over again, our lives will remain stuck in the past.

There are many benefits associated with expanding our capacity for foresight, and we can do it by learning how to imagine many possibilities when we are thinking about the future. One simple technique is to repeatedly pose the question "What if?" and then visualize whatever possibilities occur to us. Developing our foresight in this manner can amplify our power to envision new and more-complex goals. Even if we simply engage in speculative visioning about the future, with no thought of practical or personal relevance, we will nourish our imaginative powers. By enriching our minds with new possibilities and expanding the psychological space in which we think, we increase our mental and behavioral freedom.

When we use our imagination to envision future possibilities, we bring our creativity into play. Human creativity is the ability to produce novel ideas, inventions, and behaviors. There are many ways to foster creativity in people, and exercising and developing foresight is definitely one of the best, because foresight is not bound by the constraints of the present. Imagining possible futures helps us to break out of mental boxes in which our thoughts are confined.

Self-Narratives: The "Stories" Of Our Lives

In thinking about ourselves, we do not see ourselves as static beings; rather, our lives are an ongoing story that we tell ourselves. We are both the narrator and the main character--the author and the hero--of our own story. We make of ourselves a self-created creation, or what psychologist Antonio Damasio calls "an autobiographical self."

Our self-narratives include both the past and the future of significant events and themes that summarize our life journey up to the present, as well as our hopes and aspirations for the future. These self-narratives give temporal coherence to our lives, connecting together causally our past, present, and future. In this way, our self-narratives give us a sense of how we have come to be where we are and where this ongoing journey is heading in the future. As the creator of this narrative, we interpret and shape the meaning and substance of the journey and, consequently, who we are and who we want to become.

One highly significant theme in our self-narratives is the relative strength of optimism and pessimism in how we view the story of our lives. Psychologist Martin Seligman argues that the belief that one can positively affect the future is critical to optimistic thinking. Seligman defines optimism as a way of thinking involving the beliefs that misfortunes are relatively short-lived, limited in their effect, and due to external circumstances. By contrast, pessimists not only have negative images about the future but also believe that they cannot effect any positive change in what is to come. Pessimists believe that they are doomed to failure.

Seligman contends that the emotional state of depression is primarily due to pessimistic thinking. He also points out that optimism and pessimism are self-fulfilling prophecies. Each mode of thinking tends to reinforce the behavior that leads to the very results that are anticipated. If you are pessimistic and expect to fail, you are likely to do things that increase the likelihood that you will fail again; when you do, it confirms your pessimistic outlook. But Seligman also believes that pessimistic habits of thought can be changed through relearning, education, and training.

Self-Efficacy vs. Helplessness

Another psychologist, Albert Bandura of Stanford University, has studied the beliefs people have about their own "self-efficacy" and the effects of those beliefs upon behavior. Self-efficacy is belief in one's ability to achieve one's goals. People with low self-efficacy believe they are relatively powerless with respect to the future, whereas those with high self-efficacy believe they have a high level of control or influence on the future. High self-efficacy is the opposite of helplessness. People with high self-efficacy set realistic goals and persist in achieving these goals. People with low self-efficacy set unrealistic or minimal goals and are very likely to give up as soon as challenges or difficulties arise.

The goal of many forms of psychotherapy is to help people to see that there are alternatives to the negative future scenarios they foresee for themselves and that they have some power to change the direction of their lives. Opening the mind to future possibilities and raising one's perceived self-efficacy in realizing positive possibilities is, in essence, what psychotherapy is all about; it is a form of changing and expanding one's future consciousness. Psychotherapy often involves helping clients to set new goals, articulate plans, and monitor follow-through on these plans--all forms of future consciousness. Psychotherapy also works toward helping people to think differently about themselves--to see themselves as more capable of change than they previously believed. Psychotherapy facilitates changes in a person's self-narrative.

Mental health might be defined as the degree to which one's behavior and personality are centered on hope and motivated by positive goals; conversely, mental illness can be defined as the degree to which a person's life revolves around fear, avoidance, and escape. Mental health can therefore be described as a positive, goal-oriented mode of future consciousness, while mental illness can be described as a negative, avoidance-oriented mode of future consciousness.

Psychologist Wallace Wilkins has studied the emotional and motivational effects of people's beliefs about the future. The future, he says, consists of possibilities rather than certainties. We will be better off if we anticipate positive rather than negative future possibilities, because positive anticipations will increase the quality of life now. According to Wilkins, these positive anticipations, which should be acted upon, do not even need to be accurate. A positive mind-set concerning where we are heading and the future consequences of our actions makes us feel better today.

Another psychologist, Noelle Nelson, studied different types of beliefs about the future and their effects on mental health and personal success. She says that fear of the future produces negative emotional states and inaction, but to think, uncritically, that the future will be wonderful is unrealistic and will invariably lead to frustration and disappointment. So Nelson argues for "Winner" beliefs about the future.

"Winners" acknowledge the negative as well as positive possibilities of tomorrow, but believe that we have considerable power to determine which possibilities are realized. Though recognizing the risks of the future, winners sense that they have appreciable control over what happens. This perception generates good mental health and emotional well-being. A sense of personal empowerment over the future positively affects one's emotional state. Conversely, the belief that the future is controlled by external forces beyond our control or that the future is already determined generates apathy and other negative emotional states.

Acting on the future proactively alters one's self-identity. The future is a challenge, involving an element of risk and uncertainty, and when people meet challenges rather than running from them, they increase their self-confidence and self-esteem. Expanded foresight, goal setting, planning, and goal-directed behavior give a person a sense of increased empowerment. Developing one's capacity to think about the future--to identify and seize opportunities and tackle challenges--improves one's self-image and self-efficacy.

Future Consciousness and Wisdom

The development of future consciousness contributes to the growth of a variety of different virtues, including courage, humility, compassion, and especially wisdom. Wisdom is the capacity to apply general knowledge gained in the past to challenging and novel problems and situations. Wisdom can also be described as being able to grasp the big picture of reality and use this knowledge for the betterment of life. Wisdom connects the heritage and lessons of the past with the thoughtfulness, openness, and creativity needed for the future. A person cannot be wise without a strong sense of the future.

The future is the most cosmic, mind-expanding, and philosophically enlightening topic the human mind can entertain. Will we travel into space and find new and strange worlds that possess life and intelligence? Will we transcend our present biological bodies? What new revelations and achievements will emerge, technologically, scientifically, and even spiritually? The growth of future consciousness facilitates the growth of cosmic consciousness.

At the same time, future consciousness is intimately tied to the pragmatic concerns of life. The future is, in fact, the most pressing practical issue of our time. It is of great importance both for humanity as a whole and for each of us individually. For very practical reasons, we need to further evolve our future consciousness.

Yet, we face a challenge. According to many writers, our conscious sense of the future is weakening, and we are becoming lost in an overpowering present.

Here are some of the things these thinkers are saying:

* Historian Robert Nisbet has argued that during the last century the Western world has lost faith in a positive image of progress and now is immersed in a "Cult of the Present" that is destroying both the past and the future. (See History of the Idea of Progress, Transaction Publishers, 1994.)

* Sociologist Stephen Bertman contends in his book Hyperculture: The Human Cost of Speed (Praeger, 1998) that the fast-paced modern world is destroying both historical and future consciousness. We are suffering from "cultural amnesia," quickly forgetting the past and having no time to think about the future.

* Philosophers Steven Best and Douglas Kellner say that the positive and hopeful images of the future generated in the period of the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution came under critical attack over the last century, often being replaced by disappointment, despair, and nihilism regarding the promises and prospects of modern civilization (The Postmodern Turn, Guilford Press, 1997).

* Futurist Michael Zey, author of The Future Factor (McGraw-Hill, 2000), is especially concerned about what he sees as a loss of positive images of the future in modern times and about the replacement of the positive with either negative visions or the total lack of any images. Zey is not alone in this assessment of our contemporary depressive mind-set regarding the future. He believes, as do many other futurists, that modern society should find new positive images of the future to create a renewed sense of hopefulness and counteract the prevalent sense of negativity and nihilism in our world.

Given the increasing complexity and pace of change in the modern world, it seems highly maladaptive for humans to be losing their sense of the future. Without future consciousness, humans would become disoriented and dysfunctional. Future consciousness should be expanding rather than shrinking if we are to flourish or even survive as a species in the future.

What seems paradoxical about this presumed deterioration of our sense of both the future and the past is that it runs against evolutionary and historical trends. Future consciousness has evolved throughout the history of life. As a general evolutionary trend, awareness and adaptive functioning have become increasingly less egocentric and more expansive in both space and time. The mind's eye has seen farther and farther.

The Future of Future Consciousness

So is future consciousness shrinking or will it continue to evolve? The answer is probably both. While our knowledge of past and future keeps growing through advances in science and history, we may not always be using this knowledge in our everyday lives. We may be caught up in the rush of the present. In spite of the fast pace of change, we may have entered a regressive period in human history, having lost our hope for a positive future. There are clearly many forward-looking organizations and social movements around the world, but the general population, both in modernized and undeveloped countries, may be caught in either the madness or the impoverishment of the present. To whatever degree and in whatever ways our consciousness is narrowing, we need to understand why and find ways to reverse the process.

In the long run, I believe, future consciousness in humans will evolve. If it doesn't, we are doomed. Perhaps then, a superior type of mind will pick up the gauntlet.

One thing is certain: The future is the only reality that we can actually do anything about. Though there is much to be learned about the past that clearly can benefit us, we can do nothing to change it, because it is already gone. Meanwhile, the present disappears quickly; it is here and gone. But the future is a vast arena of possibilities--and the only arena of existence over which we have any practical influence or control. To whatever degree we can guide the future in a constructive and informed way, we will benefit ourselves and all those who are affected by our actions.

About the Author

Tom Lombardo is the faculty chair of psychology, philosophy, and integrated studies at Rio Salado College in Tempe, Arizona. His Web site "The Odyssey of the Future" (www.odysseyofthefuture.net) contains a wealth of informational resources on the study of the future. E-mail tlombardo1@cox.net.

For more on future consciousness, see Lombardo's essay, "The Value of Future Consciousness," in Foresight, Innovation, and Strategy: Toward a Wiser Future edited by Cynthia G. Wagner (World Future Society, 2005). Available from www.wfs.org/vol2005.htm for $29.95 ($24.95 for Society members). Also see his article "The Psychology and Value of Future Consciousness" at www.odysseyofthefuture.net/pdf_files/Readings/PsyValueFutConsArticle.pdf.

FEEDBACK: Send your comments about this article to letters@wfs.org.

RELATED ARTICLE: The Cognitive Dimension of Future Consciousness

All the major cognitive processes are involved in future consciousness. I have summarized these different processes in the table below.

 
Imagination            The ability to create mental images and
                       hypothetical realities in our minds.
Foresight              The ability to imagine or envision the future.
Goal Setting           The ability to identify and conceptualize
                       desirable goals of action.
Possibility Thinking   The ability to imagine multiple or alternative
                       hypothetical future realities.
Scenario Building      The activity of imagining and describing
                       detailed, complex, and realistic hypothetical
                       future realities.
Critical Thinking      The ability to apply principles of sound and
and Reasoning          valid reasoning to logical inference, the
                       comparison and evaluation of different points of
                       view, and the development and expression of
                       theories and hypotheses--thinking about
                       thinking--the opposite of egocentric thinking.
Open-Mindedness        The ability to be flexible, to evaluate with
and Creativity         fairness other points of view besides one's own
                       view, and to be receptive to ideas that are
                       different from standard beliefs. The production
                       of novel ideas, inventions, and behaviors.
Problem Solving        A form of thinking where some solution or answer
                       to a question, problem, or challenge is
                       identified and successfully enacted.
Decision Making        The ability to make a choice among alternative
                       goals and courses of action and follow through on
                       the choice.
Planning               The ability to construct a hypothetical series of
                       connected actions that lead to the realization of
                       an identified goal.
Hypothetical Thinking  The ability to imagine and evaluate
                       possibilities.
Holistic Insight       The ability to understand the "big picture"--to
                       see how the details of a situation fit together--
                       frequently experienced in a rather sudden flash
                       of comprehension.
Empirical Observation  The ability to perceive and understand observable
                       facts or patterns of facts.
 

--Tom Lombardo

RELATED ARTICLE: Ways to Develop Future Consciousness

* Challenge existing habitual beliefs about the future.

* Brainstorm on alternative visions and beliefs about the future.

* Become familiar with many diverse visions of the future, from both the sciences and the humanities.

* Challenge existing habitual beliefs about your ability to influence the future.

* Clarify and assess your life plans and goals and imaginatively and critically consider alternative possibilities.

* Clarify and assess your self-narrative and imaginatively and critically consider alternative views of who you are, what you can accomplish, and where you are heading.

* Learn about history and especially long-term trends that are continuing in the present.

* Learn to better tolerate, if not appreciate, the uncertainties and adventure of life--be willing to take calculated risks at times--don't be ruled by a need for security and safety.

* Learn the psychological practices and techniques for enhancing optimism.

* Learn the psychological practices and techniques for enhancing thinking skills, visualization and imagination, and creativity.

--Tom Lombardo

RELATED ARTICLE: Benefits of Enhancing Future Consciousness

* Improves imagination, creativity, and flexibility.

* Fosters mental health.

* Improves higher-order thinking abilities, especially planning, problem solving, critical thinking skills, and integrative understanding.

* Raises self-consciousness.

* Expands mental and behavioral freedom.

* Expands consciousness.

* Can work against depression, fear, apathy, and perceived helplessness.

* Gives meaning, purpose, and hope to life.

* Brings greater self-control over one's life.

* Is highly adaptive, especially in a world of rapid change-maximizes the chances of survival and thriving in the future.

* Facilitates the development of courage and wisdom.

* Can improve ethical thinking and character.

--Tom Lombardo